The coming year will be dominated by many headlines and narratives; some like the brutal and still-searing war in Ukraine, are sadly easy to predict. Others, like the occurrence of what the stock market terms a “black swan” crisis, a disruption that few foresee and that even fewer are prepared for (2020 anyone?) are harder to predict. Yet predictions are only half of governance, the other, arguably more important half, is setting an agenda and achieving goals in the face of what comes, regardless of the unknowns.
International diplomacy is a shifting business, and we have sadly witnessed war-torn ravages replacing what had only recently been fairly stable zones around the world. Reactionary policy is an essential part of the State Department toolkit to stem bleeding and enact a kind of foreign policy triage. Yet we must never allow proactive policy to atrophy. America may face challenges and constraints, but we remain a powerful and influential state on the world stage. We have unique diplomatic resources and the responsibility to direct them wisely. I am here to urge they be directed towards India.
New Delhi represents to us a rising companion in much the same manner we ourselves once represented to Great Britain a hundred years ago, a power whose day in the sun is coming and whose influence will be felt on the course of this century to a scale perhaps even greater than our own. We can oppose out of jealousy or short-sightedness, this impending greatness, or we can do as London once chose to do for our own dawning American Century, and seek a Special Relationship with the rising power. India is the largest democracy on the planet. We have different cultures and unique histories, but our two peoples have already mingled and benefited from cultural exchange and emigration, technology-sharing and trade. There is ample room for more.
In the coming years commercial investment in Indian manufacturing will explode as companies ranging from Silicon Valley to Big Pharma tap into the vast reserve of Indian scientific and human capital with American business dollars and technology. As just one tangible example of this phenomenon, soon one out of every five iPhones will come from India.
We should focus on Made in America initiatives, but there will always be demand for items that cannot be made at profitable scale on our shores. As such we ought to welcome manufacturing that sources what we cannot produce from a trade partner who is a fellow democracy and who lacks a deeply harbored vendetta against our security (unlike some other sources we rely on). Our next major vaccine and your next daily medication may well source from India. On the security front, our two nations have a shared interest in containing the expansionist dreams of Xi Jinping’s China.
U.S.-India military cooperation via the Quad and other forums will be a cornerstone of a free and open Indo-Pacific. And as one of the few Great Powers without a legacy of exporting imperialism, India is uniquely situated with friendships across delicate zones of the developing world, who see it as a benign partner and trusted confidant. Washington would be wise to partner with India in humanitarian projects at the UN and among NGOs in regions where American credibility is in short supply but high demand.
In short, the relationship between America and India has burgeoning potential across all fields, but the promise of this new special relationship is only as fruitful as the efforts dedicated to its cultivation. Britain once made the wise decision to cultivate its ties with a rising U.S. and we would be wise to do the same in turn in our own era with India. It is my prediction that India’s hour on the global stage is coming soon; 2023 should be the year America steps to the fore, ready to offer a hand of partnership as New Delhi arrives.
Garrison Moratto of Bakersfield is host of The New Diplomatist podcast. He received his MS in international relations from Liberty University.
