I sell a car and buy another one every three or four years, sometimes new but usually used, and on the last few occasions I’ve given EVs serious consideration.
Ultimately I’ve picked internal combustion over electric, but the switch gets more tempting each time.
California just made my next decision considerably more consequential. Just not necessarily easier.
The state announced last week that, after 2035, it will outlaw the sale of new cars that run on gas or diesel. The transition will come in stages, with 35 percent of all new cars sold falling into one of three green categories — all electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen — by 2026. Three and a half years until the revolution officially commences.
Electric vehicles represent about 13 percent of all new car sales in California today, and while current Kern County sales numbers aren’t readily available, the percentage of locally registered EVs was about 1 percent at the end of 2020 — half of Fresno County’s rate and one-fifth of Los Angeles County’s.
That shouldn’t surprise anyone: The share of registered EVs today in Texas, Kern’s doppleganger state, is 0.24 percent.
If California’s imminent transportation culture shift is magnitude 5, Kern’s is 25.
One reason for EVs’ slow acceptance, relative to the rest of the state, is our longstanding allegiance — conscious or not — to the oil industry, for whom California’s transition to an all-electric transportation universe feels like another stake in the heart. Kern County produces 70 percent of the state’s oil, and the local industry is responsible for 16,000 jobs. Oil and gas also generate nearly a quarter of the county’s property tax revenue, which funds schools, public safety, roads, hospitals, parks, libraries and more. You don’t replace that kind of economic contribution easily — not by 2026, not by 2035, not in a generation. But we will have to try.
Then there’s the failure of automakers to produce, until very recently, Kern County’s unofficial vehicle of choice: the U.S.-built full-size pickup truck. That’s one that U.S. automakers ought to be able to rectify soon, and California’s decree — likely to be adopted in as many as 17 other states, including Washington, Oregon, Vermont, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts — will hasten it.
Fewer EVs on local roads have long equaled fewer EVs on the minds of local car buyers like me. That equation soon flips.
Once upon a time, EV doubters cited range anxiety as a primary reason for sticking with traditionally fueled vehicles: Will my electric car die on the side of the road for lack of charge? New battery technology has largely put those concerns to rest, and an auto industry energized by the demands of a huge portion of its market — the transitioning 18 states represent about one-third — will surely improve the technology further and faster. If the federal government adopts California standards, things change faster still.
As for that other big drawback, cost, the sticker price of an EV — currently beyond the reach of many lower-income consumers — should drop as demand increases and automakers expand buyer choices.
A bigger obstacle is the additional pressure an all-electric world will put on the state’s fragile power grid. We’re already seeing late afternoon summer outages caused by millions of air conditioners working overtime. What happens when California plugs in all 14 million of its cars? Ironically, or perhaps appropriately, overworked power grids can be linked to the same climate change concerns that California’s EV mandate seeks to address.
Now let’s consider the state’s lack of charging stations. Nearly 1.2 million chargers will be needed for the 8 million zero-emission vehicles expected in California by 2030, according to a state report, and California has only about 70,000 now, with 123,000 more on the way. That’s not remotely close to meeting the need.
Then there’s this: Many people, both in small-town USA and major urban centers, don't have driveways or dedicated parking spaces. Bakersfield has many such neighborhoods, such as Oleander and Westchester, where a good portion of the residents park on the street. In many places, drivers have to fight for a parking spot each day. How are they supposed to charge their EVs? Run an extension cord to the sidewalk?
EVs will continue to improve but without prompt attention, residential charging infrastructure will suffer some of the same inequities that have long created a digital divide in communications. In counties like Kern, one of the poorest in the nation, that's no small concern.
But the state mandate also creates opportunity. An electric vehicle repair and maintenance program at Bakersfield College, which already has such a program for gasoline-powered engines. A battery technology program at Cal State Bakersfield, which is already expanding its engineering program. County-encouraged investments in solar and wind technology, which are already among the nation’s most advanced.
Change is hard. Sitting by and idly watching it happen is harder.
I don’t know if a Tesla fits in my budget, but it’ll be worth investigating when the time comes.
