Kern Republicans: With seats up for grabs, will we see a changing of the guard?
| Saturday, Oct 31 2009 12:00 PM
Last Updated Saturday, Oct 31 2009 12:00 PM
Loading Stories
Advertisement
KERN COUNTY PARTY REGISTRATION AS OF MAY
Eligible voters: 478,796
Registered voters: 307,571
(64 percent of eligible residents)
Republicans: 44.8 percent
137,837 voters
Democrats: 36 percent
110,750 voters
Decline to state: 15.5 percent
47,671 voters
Note: Not all parties included.
Source: California Secretary of State
Related Stories:
Not long ago, Kern County Republicans could be broken into two main camps: consultant Mark Abernathy's crew and its more conservative rivals.
A lot has happened since Kevin McCarthy, one of the former, easily slipped into mentor Bill Thomas' Congressional seat in the November 2006 election.
Global recession. Federal bailouts. A Democratic presidency. Health care town halls.
In April, Tea Party protesters marched onto the scene. In May, Bakersfield's Ken Mettler took over statewide presidency of the conservative California Republican Assembly and later filed papers to run for state office.
Last month, businessman Stan Ellis, an outsider who turned heads in 2006 with a viable run for state office, said he might try again.
Whether these new groups and faces turn political stirrings into electoral victory remains to be seen. Opportunities abound given the slew of seats up for grabs in 2010.
"The electorate is restless right now," said local Republican consultant Tracy Leach, who counts Mettler as a client. "I think they're in a rebellious mood."
OPPORTUNITIES
Political junkies like Leach are especially intrigued by the Tea Partiers. They got the bullhorn and yelled. They mobilized; crowds turned up.
Now what?
"I'm really curious to see if they take the movement to the next level" by finding a credible candidate to run, she said.
Newcomers might have another advantage these days.
Some observers think the bench has gotten thin for Abernathy, whose Western Pacific Research Inc. clients have long dominated local contests from school boards to Congress.
"He hasn't worked to bring people up the ranks," said Stan Harper, a Bakersfield businessman and Republican consultant.
Exhibit No. 1 is Abernathy client Dean Haddock, a Bakersfield psychologist with little political experience who recently filed to run for state Assembly.
It used to be "almost impossible" to beat a candidate from the Abernathy camp, Harper said.
McCarthy, chief deputy Republican whip and widely cited rising star of the GOP, believes another candidate -- someone no one is thinking of right now -- will step into the Assembly race Haddock entered.
He dismissed speculation Abernathy's bench is thinning or his political drive cooling.
"I would never bet against Mark's passion to help people get involved in the Republican Party," McCarthy said.
Whether Abernathy's organization is still Bakersfield's 800-pound gorilla in 2010 remains to be seen.
But Leach and others say party squabbling, at least, has subsided.
"The temperature has gone down on Abernathy-versus-the-conservatives as far as animosity," she said.
Dust-ups still occur, but the atmosphere has been less hostile since Thomas retired, she said.
Thomas earned a reputation as one of the brainiest -- and hottest-tempered -- legislators on Capitol Hill during his three decades in Congress.
Upset about being reached on his cell phone Thursday, Thomas declined to comment for this story.
HARMONIOUS CONVERGENCE
In September, at the California Republican Party's fall convention in Indian Wells, Mettler, as president of the California Republican Assembly, co-hosted a "unity" suite that brought rivals together in the same hotel room. The California Congress of Republicans -- Abernathy is president of the Bakersfield chapter -- was co-host.
The unity suite fostered much collegial conversation, Mettler said. But he still sees the party divided by strategists driven to win elections and candidates devoted to conservative principles regardless of ballot-box results.
He believes that tension will play out locally in 2010.
"Kern County is the epicenter of a lot of the philosophical battle within the GOP," he said.
Mettler, 56, a contractor, has long been involved in party politics and served as elected trustee of both the Kern High and Rosedale Union school districts.
A possible state Assembly run is a new step.
So is Mettler's recent emergence as someone making headlines, whether it be for calls to reduce teacher pay or his infamous scuffle with a pro-gay marriage demonstrator last year.
"About three years ago it just hit me," Mettler said. He'd gotten fed up watching elected officials grow more uninspiring as the party shrank.
Mettler wants candidates from the private sector to step up, business owners who know the palpable terror of making payroll, committed fiscal and social conservatives who can seize the bully pulpit and win hearts and minds.
"I want a fire-breathing candidate," he said. "A trained monkey can pull a lever."
McCarthy, now recruitment chair for the National Republican Congressional Committee, believes 2010 could bring a generational change.
Term limits are ousting some old timers. Technology is allowing more citizens to engage. A battle over philosophical differences within the party "will come to fruition," he said.
"I think this year is more anti-incumbent and more open to new ideas," McCarthy said. "I think the time is right for people who haven't thought about politics to get in."
IN PLAY
Political shuffling is definite. Here's the latest on what's up for grabs:
STATE OFFICES
* State Sen. Roy Ashburn, R-Bakersfield, is termed out, putting his 18th District seat in play.
So far, Republicans Bill Maze, a former Visalia Assemblyman, and Assemblywoman Jean Fuller, R-Bakersfield, have filed paperwork indicating a possible run; Stan Ellis has expressed interest. Democrat Carter Pope of Lake Isabella has filed papers.
* State Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, is termed out of the 16th District and will try for lieutenant governor.
Democrat Michael Rubio, now a county supervisor, has filed paperwork. Hanford City Councilman David Thomas, a Republican, has said he will run.
* Fuller hasn't yet said whether she'll re-run for her 32nd District post, try for Ashburn's spot or do something else altogether.
Along with Fuller, Republicans Ken Mettler and Dean Haddock, an Abernathy client, have pulled papers; Ellis is considering. Taft College political science professor Harold Pease has said he will run. Democrat Virginia McClellan-Rodriguez has filed paperwork.
* Assemblyman Danny Gilmore, R-Hanford, is expected not to seek re-election to his 30th District seat.
Democrats Fran Florez and Pete Parra have filed papers to run. Republicans are reportedly recruiting but are holding off on announcing names until Gilmore makes a decision.
BAKERSFIELD CITY COUNCIL
* The Ward 1 seat now held by Irma Carson, who is retiring, has attracted a number of hopefuls. Marvin Dean, Humberto Gomez, Wesley Davis, Sean Battle, Wesley Crawford and Donald Vereen have so far filed papers with the city.
* Zack Scrivner's Ward 7 seat opened after Scrivner, an Abernathy client, announced he'll run for county supervisor. Candidate rumors abound, but no one had filed papers as of Thursday.
* Ken Weir and David Couch are up for reelection in 2010, but the incumbents of Ward 3 and Ward 4, respectively, are likely safe if they choose to stay.
KERN COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
* Don Maben won't run again, putting his 2nd District seat in play. So far Scrivner, Mary Beth Garrison and Steve Perez have said they'll run.
