Race for the 32nd starts out hot -- and too close to call
| Wednesday, Mar 17 2010 06:26 PM
Last Updated Wednesday, Mar 17 2010 06:33 PM
LAST CALL FOR CANDIDATES
Wednesday was the last day for candidates to file paperwork for state races where the deadline had been extended.
Calls to elections offices in Kings, Kern and Tulare counties show Kern County's major state Senate and Assembly races have shaped up this way:
16th Senate District
Michael Rubio, Democrat, Bakersfield
Tim Thiesen, Republican, Dinuba
Phil Wyman, Republican, Hanford
18th Senate District
Richard Tripp, Republican, Tehachapi
Jean Fuller, Republican, Bakersfield
Carter Pope, Democrat, Lake Isabella
Kevin Lurz, Libertarian, Visalia
32nd Assembly District
Shannon Grove, Republican, Bakersfield
Ken Mettler, Republican, Bakersfield
Shannon Holloway, Republican, Bakersfield
Holly Spohn-Gross, Democrat, Kernville
30th Assembly District
Fran Florez, Democrat, Shafter
Pete Parra, Democrat, Hanford
Stephanie Campbell, Republican, Bakersfield
David Valadao, Republican, Hanford
Images
Shannon Grove, a candidate in the 32nd Assembly District Republican primary
Ken Mettler, candidate for 32nd District assemblyman.
The official list of candidates in the 32nd Assembly District wasn't final until 5 p.m. Wednesday, but blows have already started in what political observers say will be a hotly fought contest between Republicans Ken Mettler and Shannon Grove.
Mettler filed elections fraud charges against Grove over her February move into the district just days before he was forced to answer questions about his leadership of the conservative Republican Assembly of Kern County after his friend Paul Stine was accused of misappropriating the group's funds.
But these first flurries will not decide the race, local political observers say.
A few voters may be swayed by such accusations, said political consultant Gene Tackett, but in this anger-tinged election year the decision for most voters will come down to faith.
Mettler, for example, is backed by the socially conservative Republican Assembly, which he was president of before taking reins of the related state group. Grove, meanwhile, has political powerhouse consultant Mark Abernathy on her side.
"I think it gets down to: What is your religion? Is it a Republican Assembly religion or an Abernathy, McCarthy religion?" Tackett said, referring to Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield. "It really gets down to who you have faith in."
Political observer Stan Harper said he thinks Grove is in a good position to take the lead.
Mettler has a small base in the conservative community, Harper said.
But Grove will enjoy the momentum that the Abernathy organization and its fundraising muscle will be able to provide, he said.
Well-known businessman Stan Ellis, who had strong name recognition, wasn't able to beat political neophyte Jean Fuller two terms ago when she ran with Abernathy's support, Harper noted.
Tackett thinks the race is tighter than Harper does.
"I would think it is a toss-up at this point," he said. "Because Grove has been picked by the Abernathy/(Bill) Thomas/McCarthy group, she obviously has a chance to win. With past history you've got to give Mark Abernathy the edge."
But Tea Party frustration and unhappiness with the political status quo could play into Mettler's hands.
"I think Mettler is one of the smartest, (most) politically aggressive candidates they've had. He is probably the best positioned from the so-called 'non-Abernathy' Republicans," Tackett said.
A third Bakersfield Republican, flooring-business secretary Shannon Holloway, has also entered the race.
She did not return calls or e-mails this week.
"Finding someone with the same name (to run) is not a new political tactic," Tackett said, referring to Shannon Holloway's entrance in the race after Shannon Grove's.
A single Democrat, Holly Spohn-Gross from Kernville, will run in the heavily Republican-leaning district.
Kern County Democratic Party Chair Candi Easter said Spohn-Gross' fate is tied to the Republican primary.
"We have a really great candidate in Holly Spohn-Gross," she said.
But can she win?
"I really think that depends on how bad Republicans beat each other up in the election season," Easter said.
Tackett said the winner of the Republican primary has a safe shot at the seat in November.
"It's a Republican-only district," he said.
Harper added: "I think, by the time October and November come around, people will vote party lines."
All of the observers agree on one thing: The 32nd Assembly is going to be a hotly contested race.
