Big names to crowd ballots
ELECTION: Florez faces formidable opponent for lieutenant governor
| Friday, Jan 01 2010 09:22 PM
Last Updated Friday, Jan 01 2010 09:23 PM
We've got Parra vs. Florez. We've probably got four wide open state legislative races. We've got a Shafter son running for lieutenant governor and a Lost Hills lad trying to jump from supervisor to state senator.
2010 is shaping up to be a drama-filled election year.
And those are just the state races.
We've also got hotly contested Board of Supervisors and Bakersfield City Council contests to look forward to.
In terms of interest, though, they all pale in comparison to the June primary fight between Pete Parra and Fran Florez in the 30th Assembly District.
"Political junkies will be pulling out their popcorn for that one," said Kevin Spillane, a Republican strategist in Sacramento.
30th Assembly District
The 30th always puts on a show because it's one of the state's few competitive districts. This time its Democratic primary in June promises to be as cutthroat as its general election in November.
That's because it pits Kern County's political "Hatfields and McCoys" against one another, as Spillane put it.
Pundits appear split on who has the early advantage.
Instinct says it's Florez, said Democratic campaign consultant Richie Ross of Sacramento, who has worked with both the Parra and Florez families. He said voter turnout skews 56 percent female, 44 percent male in Democratic primaries.
"All things being equal, a credible female candidate will get 60 percent of the female vote," Ross said. "So if you apply that math to a 56-44 spread, you're going to end up with Fran Florez starting out somewhere around 34 percent."
Agreeing Florez has the upper hand is Allan Hoffenblum a Republican who analyzes state races as co-editor of the Target Book.
"When the two families go against each other, the Florez family tends to win," he said.
Hoffenblum was referring to 2004 when Michael Rubio, a former top aide to Fran Florez's son, state Sen. Dean Florez of Shafter, unseated Pete Parra for Kern County supervisor.
But Pete and his daughter, former Assemblywoman Nicole Parra, D-Hanford, had the last laugh when they backed Republican Danny Gilmore in his win over Fran Florez to take the 30th in 2008.
Local Republican consultant Stan Harper said political junkies he's talking to give Fran Florez the advantage, too, mostly because of the Florez name and the fact her son can help her raise a lot of money.
But he disagrees.
He said if the election were held today it would be a toss-up, but as the campaign goes on, Parra will win.
"Today he has a more committed attitude and dedication to public life -- and he's certainly more focused," Harper said. "While I personally like Fran, my sources tell me they support her because of Dean and because of her active ability to campaign."
Local GOP consultant Tracy Leach is also going with Parra, saying there's voter fatigue with the Florez family, Parra's been campaigning hard and Fran Florez wasn't a very exciting candidate in 2008.
And, she said, "Nicole knows how to run races."
Gilmore has strongly indicated he won't run for a second two-year term.
Hoffenblum and Leach said the Republican Assembly caucus has been attempting to recruit a strong candidate. A Hanford dairyman, David Valadao, has thrown his hat in the ring but he's on his own, not backed by the party.
Leach said it's tough to find someone good to run because the 30th District race is always so nasty.
"It's not a Republican seat, so it's challenging to get someone to endure that pain," she said.
Meanwhile, the GOP hopes the Florez-Parra spat will continue after the primary, Hoffenblum said.
"The Parra family was able to get a couple hundred votes, if not more, for Gilmore (in 2008)," Hoffenblum said.
Spillane, also political director for the Assembly Republicans, would only say of the GOP's plans in the 30th: "That's a conservative district where elections have been close and it will be again this time."
Lieutenant governor
Also high on the interest scale is whether Dean Florez can leap from Senate majority leader to lieutenant governor. In a nutshell, pundits say, no.
First there's the "near-impossibility" of a Central Valley resident building the name ID and fundraising base needed to take statewide office, said Vic Pollard, The Californian's former Sacramento bureau chief.
Then there's his most formidable primary opponent so far, Pollard said, Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn.
She's a member of one of the best-known political families in Southern California. Hahn's father, Kenneth Hahn, was a legendary Los Angeles County supervisor while her brother James Hahn was L.A. mayor from 2001-2005.
There are a lot of voters and lots of money in Southern California, Pollard said.
"I would not be surprised if (Florez) drops out, unless he's got a longer-term goal in mind that would not be jeopardized by a loss for lieutenant governor," Pollard said.
Analyst Hoffenblum said Florez has a chance "because he's Latino and Latinos are a significant block of the electorate."
But he gave a slight advantage to Hahn given her L.A. name identification and family history.
Harper said Florez has campaigned hard throughout the state, meeting with movers and shakers and easily raising money. But it's not enough.
"I would have to say that Dean is far more qualified and knows the players much better, but in this case it will be about name I.D."
Consultant Ross, however, said "it's too soon to write Florez's obituary."
If Florez does survive the primary, Hoffenblum said, it's hard to say what will happen in the general election because there's a big wild card at play.
That's Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's recent nomination of state Sen. Abel Maldonado, R-Santa Maria, to serve as lieutenant governor until next year's race. (John Garamendi just resigned as lieutenant governor after winning a Congressional seat in a special election).
If Maldonado is confirmed by the California Legislature and runs again in 2010 as he's said he will, who knows what's next, Hoffenblum said.
"Democrat Latino versus Republican incumbent Latino? Your guess is as good as mine," Hoffenblum said.
GOP strategist Spillane said a private poll puts Hahn 20 points ahead of Florez in the primary. If Florez somehow does make it to November?
"If it's Maldonado versus Florez, it's still a tougher race for Florez facing an incumbent, even if it's an appointed incumbent," Spillane said.
Florez's take?
Florez said Pollard's all wrong, that he's in the race all the way. He said he hasn't seen Hahn put up any money and he's raised $1.3 million on the road -- and shortly will reach $2 million.
Florez said name identification didn't help Hahn when she lost to Steve Kuykendall for Congress -- and he hasn't lost a race yet.
"I represent a Senate district with 800,000 people and she represents a sliver of the city of Los Angeles," Florez said. "Plus I will win the Latino seats (areas) on the L.A. City Council."
The last three lieutenant governors had legislative experience, Florez said, and the last two were from the Central Valley.
"(That) didn't seem to hurt them," he said of Cruz Bustamante of Fresno and Garamendi of Stockton.
And Hahn is just exploring her run -- a lot can change in politics, Florez said.
32nd Assembly District
Incumbent Assemblywoman Jean Fuller, R-Bakersfield, said she'll probably run for the 18th Senate District seat Roy Ashburn is terming out of but we don't know her intentions for sure.
Several Republicans have announced they'll run for Fuller's Assembly seat if she doesn't seek re-election but analysts still expect a bigger name to jump in. The GOP hopefuls so far are Bakersfield psychologist Dean Haddock; Kern High School District Trustee Ken Mettler; and Taft College professor Harold Pease.
This week, Bakersfield City Councilman David Couch and Olympic medalist Gabe Woodward, both Republicans, confirmed they're seriously considering entering the race.
Democrat Gina McClellan Rodriguez of Bakersfield is also running.
16th Senate District
Kern County Supervisor and Democrat Michael Rubio is the only declared candidate; most observers say he's a shoo-in.
Former Kern County state legislator Phil Wyman has filed papers to run in the GOP primary but said he hasn't made a final decision.
He held the post from 1993 -- when he won a special election -- until 1994 when he was defeated by now-Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno.
Wyman also served in the state Assembly for many years.
He's told the Fresno Republican Party he's definitely running, GOP consultant Leach said.
Rubio will be tough to beat, she said, given his huge war chest -- $411,734 as of June 30 -- and the Democrats' 16-point registration advantage in the district, which Dean Florez represents now.
Ross said Wyman would be "a credible opponent."
18th Senate District
Republicans Bill Maze, a former Visalia assemblyman, and Jean Fuller have filed paperwork indicating a possible run. Democrat Carter Pope of Lake Isabella has filed papers.
20th Congressional District
This race got interesting a couple of weeks ago when Ashburn announced he's thinking about challenging Costa.
Already in the GOP primary is James "Andy" Vidak, who farms cherries and operates a lettuce cooling business in Hanford, and Josh Miller, a transportation broker from Visalia.
A big question is who the Republican Party will get behind. Ashburn fell out of favor with many conservatives by voting for a state budget deal in February that included tax hikes.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has looked at the district "some" in its strategizing because of its high unemployment rate and water supply crisis, said spokeswoman Joanna Burgos.
She said the committee won't know whom to support until it talks to all the candidates.
Leach has said her NRCC contacts are lukewarm to Ashburn.
Board of Equalization
Roy Ashburn had nearly $81,000 in the bank on June 30 for this race. But Leach and other political observers say he's not really campaigning for it.
Spillane, the GOP consultant, said it's an extremely competitive contest that may be decided by ballot designation and slate mailer because the district is so vast and nobody has strong name recognition.
Ashburn may be at a disadvantage because one candidate, Barbara Alby, will have the ballot designation of chief deputy to the incumbent, Bill Leonard, while another, Alan Nakanishi, has sewn up space on slate mailers.
Ashburn said he has been campaigning but because the district is so vast, it's not the kind you seek by doing a lot of glad-handing.
He dismissed the naysaying, too, arguing the board race, especially the securing of slate mailers, is very fluid.
Bakersfield City Council
* The Ward 1 seat now held by Irma Carson, who has indicated she's retiring, has attracted a number of hopefuls. Marvin Dean, Humberto Gomez, Wesley Davis, Sean Battle, Wesley Crawford and Donald Vereen have so far filed papers with the city.
* Zack Scrivner's Ward 7 seat opened after he announced he'll run for county supervisor. No one has filed papers to run for it yet.
* Ken Weir and David Couch are up for re-election in 2010, but the incumbents of Ward 3 and Ward 4, respectively, are likely safe if they choose to stay.
Kern County Board of Supervisors
* Don Maben won't run again, putting his 2nd District seat in play. So far Scrivner, Mary Beth Garrison and Steve Perez have said they'll run.
* Supervisor Mike Maggard, another safe incumbent, is up for re-election; he's the only one who has filed to run.
