Battle for soul of GOP reflects on McCarthy
| Saturday, Oct 31 2009 08:20 PM
Last Updated Saturday, Oct 31 2009 08:20 PM
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Kevin McCarthy represents the reddest county in California, but as his party's chief recruiter of congressional candidates, he grudgingly acknowledges that some places on the Republican map lean a little toward violet.
At least they did.
The unexpected, 11th-hour demise of Dede Scozzafava's candidacy in the special-election race for New York's vacant 23rd District seat suggests that things have changed over the past few months. And the shift may not be in Republicans' best long-range interest.
McCarthy and the National Republican Congressional Committee had been taking heat for backing Scozzafava, who unequi-vocally fails the conservative sniff test.
She supports gay marriage, abortion rights and is said to have a cozy relationship with local labor officials. Those are Nancy Pelosi credentials, McCarthy's constituents might say, so you can understand why the congressman demurred when asked who he personally preferred between Scozzafava and third-party conservative candidate Doug Hoffman (with Democrat Bill Owens in the wings, eagerly anticipating a split Republican vote).
Talk about a radioactive issue for McCarthy. The Bakersfield Republican likes to trumpet his conservative credentials but regularly finds himself dealing with a contingent of locals figuratively parading around in "We're the Real Conservatives" T-shirts.
The Scozzafava saga brought them out of the woodwork. Voters "need to know that their congressman is supporting someone who would be considered a radical leftist in Bakersfield," a Taft reader e-mailed me last week.
Given the way the numbers in Congress are falling these days, Republicans need all the seats they can get, be they occupied by Goldwater conservatives or McCain moderates. Supporting a candidate whose positions you might not completely agree with can make sense if the tradeoff results in a big-picture victory -- can't it?
Not in some Republicans' minds.
And they'll point to the unusual trajectory of NY-23 as proof that they're onto something. As of April 1, the district, which has long leaned moderate, was 43 percent Republican and just 1 percent Conservative Party. Making matters worse for Hoffman, the editorial board of the district's biggest newspaper, the Watertown Daily Times, came away from its interview with him wholly unimpressed, citing his inability "to articulate clear positions on a number of matters specific to Northern New Yorkers." The paper endorsed Scozzafava, the only one in the race to have ever held elective office.
Yet Hoffman kept gaining, thanks in part to an ever-growing group of conservative backers, Sarah Palin among them. Recent poll (and fundraising) numbers apparently convinced Scozzafava that it was over.
Some say a Hoffman victory would have broad implications for the GOP. Barack Obama triumphed last November by winning voters from the political center, and Beltway conservatives like Newt Gingrich were certain that Republicans could only reassert themselves by reclaiming that territory, even if it meant inching to the left with candidates like Scozzafava. But her announced departure (she's still on the ballot) suggests that rank-and-file Republicans aren't going along with that.
What we're left with is a two-man race that has essentially become a proxy debate about the future of the GOP. If Owens wins, the RNCC was right all along. But if Hoffman wins, we'll have evidence that the pendulum has swung back for R's with unexpected swiftness.
That's a lot of cred to slather on a single off-year campaign in which the winner could end up with a mandate as feeble as 34 percent, but expect the pundits to try.
McCarthy loses no matter what the outcome. If the Democrat triumphs, McCarthy's unambiguous mission -- pick up seats -- suffers a blow. If Hoffman wins, voters will have affirmed the charge that he's applying the wrong standards.
Is he? Check back in 2010.
Reach Robert Price at rprice@bakersfield.com.
