Crabtree report: Home prices slide as supply rises
| Monday, Jan 04 2010 12:30 PM
Last Updated Monday, Jan 04 2010 12:31 PM
Bakersfield area home prices are starting to slide again as supply creeps up, but that may just reflect the usual slump in sales over the holidays, according to The Preliminary Crabtree Report.
"When I say supply's up, that's only because sales are down so unsold inventory is rising yet active listings have remained constant," said the report's author, Gary Crabtree of Affiliated Appraisers.
"As long as inventory stays up then obviously we're going to be in an oversupply situation," he said.
The median existing home price fell $6,250, or 4.4 percent, to $135,000 from November to December. That's a 9.9 percent fall year-over-year.
There were 509 sales in December, a 5.9 percent decline from the previous month.
Crabtree said he's holding his breath, hoping this is just the usual holiday-related slowdown that occurs every December, and not the first signs of another glut driving down prices again.
"I think that at this point in time it could very well be that we're in the throes of an off-peak market," Crabtree said. "From October usually into January, you'll see sales volume and pricing go down. No one wants to sell their house during the holidays. No one wants people traipsing through. So the only people selling are the people who are forced to sell."
Seven out of every 10 homes closed last month were distressed sales.
The industry has been bracing for a flood of foreclosed homes to go on sale as banks get around to releasing the "shadow inventory" that has not yet been placed on the market.
"We're all sitting here saying, 'Is the other shoe going to drop?'" Crabtree said. "If the shoe isn't dropping, at least they're untying the shoelaces.
"There are just too many factors in the economy that will point to more foreclosures."
Consumers are still extremely cautious about spending, and unemployment in Kern County was 15.1 percent in November, according to the latest data available from the California Employment Development Department.
