Excerpts from The State of Kern County’s Economy
| Wednesday, Mar 25 2009 08:57 PM
Last Updated Monday, Mar 30 2009 04:23 PM
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The first speaker at the Ninth Annual Kern County Economic Summit held Wednesday in Bakersfield was Abbas P. Grammy, professor of economics at Cal State Bakersfield. A portion of his slide presentation is in the background, comparing economic ups and downs of area counties including Kern County.
Abbas Grammy, a Cal State Bakersfield economics professor and publisher of Kern Economic Journal, delivered his annual state of the economy address at Wednesday’s Ninth Annual Kern County Economic Summit. The following are excerpts from his written report that was given to attendees. It covers conditions in 2008 with insight into 2009.
The San Joaquin Valley (hereafter, the Valley) is California’s top agricultural producing region. It consists of eight counties: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Tulare.
Data have been collected from various sources including California Labor Market Information, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Census, Data Quick, Rand California and The Kiplinger Letter.
Population growth:Kern’s population increased at a rate of 2.1 percent as it added 16,200 residents. If Kern’s population continues to grow at this rate, it would host more than 1 million residents in 2020.
Labor force growth:Kern had the second fastest growing labor force in the Valley. Kern’s work force increased 3.5 percent from 351,900 in 2007 to 364,100 in 2008. If Kern continues to grow at this rate, it would have to create enough jobs to accommodate a labor force of nearly 480,000 in 2020.
Personal income growth:Kern’s economy slowed considerably in 2008. It declined at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent, compared with a growth rate of 2.5 percent in 2007. This economic decline resulted in a loss of $106 million in personal income. If this recessionary condition continues into 2009, Kern will be losing nearly $180 million more.
Per capita personal income:Kern had the fourth largest per capita personal income in the Valley. Kern’s per capita personal income of $21,900 was $740 more than the Valley average, but $1,630 less than that of Stanislaus.
Per capita personal income growth:Kern’s rapid population growth rate of 2.1 percent coupled with its personal income growth rate of -0.6 percent caused the county’s per capita personal income to fall at a sharp rate of 2.7 percent. If this recession continues in 2009, Kern’s per capita personal income will reach $21,310 for a loss of $590.
Median household income:Kern’s median household income of $37,100 was $1,000 less than the Valley average and $6,200 less than that of San Joaquin, but $1,900 more than that of Tulare.
Median housing price:Kern offers affordable housing to its residents. Its median sales price of $190,000 was $2,750 less than that of the Valley, but equal to those of Madera and Stanislaus.
Housing sales:Kern had the second largest sales in the Valley. Its sales totaled 11,270 units. Kern’s sales was 1,470 units fewer than that of Stanislaus, but 10,572 more than that of Kings.
New residential building permits:Kern issued 2,400 permits for the construction of new privately owned residences in 2008. The number of permits was the highest in the Valley.
Housing affordability:Kern’s housing affordability indicator of 23.5 percent is measured as the median household income of $44,570 (in current dollars) divided by the median housing price of $190,000. Being the fourth highest among all counties, Kern’s affordability indicator was 5.3 percent lower than that of Merced, but 3.2 percent higher than that of Fresno.
