Study: Kern will recover earlier
| Tuesday, Jun 30 2009 06:35 PM
Last Updated Tuesday, Jun 30 2009 06:36 PM
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Kern's own economic recovery may be quicker and ultimately less painful than that of its neighbors to the north and south, a recent report predicts.
Thanks mostly to the county's relatively mild housing bubble and proximity to Los Angeles, Kern is in shape to return to its pre-recession employment peak by late 2011, according to an economist with IHS Global Insight, which released its annual forecast in late May.
By the same measure, Fresno's economy isn't expected to recover until the third quarter of 2012, which would be slightly slower than the Visalia-Porterville area (second quarter 2012) but faster than Merced (fourth quarter 2012), Stockton (second quarter 2013) and Modesto (second quarter 2014). IHS said the Los Angeles area won't regain its peak employment until 2014 or later.
"Bakersfield just has a shallower dip than the rest of California" to recover from, Jim Dissley, a regional economist with the Massachusetts-based economic forecasting and consulting firm, said Tuesday.
The country as a whole probably won't fully recover until early 2013, Dissley said.
Employment data figured heavily into the firm's predictions, Dissley said. Other factors included personal income numbers, retail sales totals, housing market data, construction activity and demographic projections.
