How do these job numbers add up?
| Thursday, Nov 18 2010 04:04 PM
Last Updated Thursday, Nov 18 2010 04:04 PM
Q: Apparently you don't read what you print.
Yesterday, in a news article "Power shift may derail high-speed trains" from the Fresno Bee, with input from The Californian's Christine Bedell, you said, "The state rail authority estimated that the system will create as many as 600,000 construction jobs -- while the system is being built." My calculator may have blown a battery, but bear with my math.
600,000 jobs times 10 (years of build-out) equals 6,000,000 man years of work. Cost per man year at $20 per hour (probably low, but taking into account Davis-Bacon/"prevailing wage") and assuming 100 percent mark-up (fringe, overhead and profit) equals $80,000. Now, six times 10 to the 6th power (6,000,000) TIMES 8 times 10 to the 4th power (80,000) equals 4.8 times 10 to the 11th power, which is $480,000,000,000. Like I say, my calculator battery may have imploded, but -- considering that the budget for the project is $43,000,000,000 -- there is not much left for materials, rolling stock and right-of-way.
Come on, people -- please get real on this project.
-- Ray Reilly
A: We asked Rachel Wall, press secretary for the California High-Speed Rail Authority, to respond:
The 600,000 jobs should be divided by 10 years (projected length of construction), not multiplied.
We are using the calculation of 20,000 jobs per $1 billion of infrastructure funding, which is less than the estimate by the federal government and comparable to that of many other transportation agencies and projects. The Authority is being conservative in its estimate of 600,000 construction-related jobs from the construction of phase 1 of the project. A $42.6 billion project using that calculation could actually produce more than 850,000 jobs, but the lesser figure of 600,000 allows for inflation and other such factors.
During peak years of construction of the system, approximately 2015-2016, we estimate 100,000 construction jobs (one year, full-time job equivalents). The initial construction of first segment will use $4.3 billion and, according to the calculation I've shared here, create more than 80,000 jobs (one year, full-time equivalents).
