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E-mail StoryTaking off for good? Flights uncertain as fuel costs soar
| Saturday, May 17 2008 12:00 PM
Last Updated: Monday, May 19 2008 9:01 AM
Fast-rising fuel prices are forcing airlines at Meadows Field Airport to make hard decisions about whether to reduce or even eliminate service out of Bakersfield.
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Departures and arrivals as of May 12, 2008; does not reflect changes set for this summer
Denver via United Airlines
Departures: 6:09 a.m. and 2 p.m. daily
Arrival: 7:27 p.m. daily
Las Vegas via U.S. Airways
Departures: 9:58 p.m. Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays
Arrivals: 1:03 a.m. Fridays, Saturdays and Mondays
Los Angeles via United Airlines
Departures: 9:28 a.m. and 2:55 p.m. daily (except Saturdays, when the afternoon departure leaves at 4:10 p.m.)
Arrivals: 2:36 p.m. and 6:48 p.m. (except Saturdays, when the late arrival comes in at 6:44 p.m.)
Phoenix via U.S. Airways
Departures: 6:15 a.m., 9:30 a.m., 12:50 p.m. and 7:10 p.m. daily (except Saturdays, when the only morning departure is at 6:15 a.m., and the latest departure is at 12:50 p.m.)
Arrivals: 8:32 a.m., 12:02 p.m., 6:22 p.m. and 9:21 p.m. daily (except Saturdays, when the only arrivals are at 12:02 p.m. and 9:21 p.m.)
Sacramento via ExpressJet
Departure: 7:05 a.m. daily
Arrival: 8:10 p.m. daily
Salt Lake City via Delta Airlines
Departure: 12:20 p.m. daily (except Tuesdays and Saturdays)
Arrival: 11:52 a.m. daily (except Tuesdays and Saturdays)
San Diego via ExpressJet
Departure: 2:40 p.m. daily
Arrival: 1:23 p.m. daily
San Francisco via United Airlines
Departures: 6:12 a.m. daily (except Sunday); 2:35 p.m. daily; and 7:10 p.m. daily (except Saturdays)
Arrivals: 9:08 a.m. daily (except Sundays); 2:02 p.m. daily; and 8:41 p.m. daily (except Saturdays; Sunday arrival is at 8:31 p.m.)
Photos:
A worker refuels a United Express jet at Meadows Field on Friday after it landed and was preparing for takeoff. Rising fuel prices increase the chance that airlines will be forced to cut flights in some markets.
Folks mill around the William M. Thomas Terminal at Meadows Field Airport in the spring.
Passengers disembark from a United Express jet on the tarmac at Meadows Field before heading into the William M. Thomas Terminal in this mid-May photo.
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Last week representatives of two airlines said they were cutting flights to and from Meadows Field. U.S. Airways confirmed it will no longer fly between Bakersfield and Las Vegas starting Aug. 19, and Mexicana Airlines acknowledged that its recent suspension of service between Bakersfield and Guadalajara could be final.
In both cases the stated reason was fuel costs, which have climbed more than 60 percent in the past year. Unless the price trend turns around, many in the industry say, more flight cuts may be ahead.
“The higher fuel price goes, and the longer high fuel prices last, the more (flights) will come out of the market, especially as the economy dips into recession and our travelers have less disposable income,” said John Heimlich, chief economist with the Air Transport Association.
Flight cutbacks around the country appear to bear him out. U.S. Airways said earlier this month that it would eliminate 10 routes in and out of its Las Vegas hub, including the one to Bakersfield. Also this month, American Airlines announced it will pull out of Oakland International Airport in September because of high fuel prices.
For customers in Kern County, the changes could spell less convenient flight schedules, more crowded planes or possibly a drive north or south to a larger airport.
INCONVENIENCE OVER DRIVING
Given a choice, Angelo Haddad, a Bakersfield insurance agent and financial adviser who arrived home from a Dallas business trip Friday evening via a Phoenix connector flight, said he would rather choose from fewer departures and arrivals than drive all the way to Los Angeles International.
“Less convenience, with an opportunity to still use (Meadows Field), is better than no opportunity,” said Haddad, who estimates he uses the airport three to four times a year.
Accountant Nikki Lopez agreed, saying she would put up with fewer flight options on the four or so times a year she flies out of Bakersfield on business “as long as I can get a flight out of here.”
“It’s better than going to L.A.,” she added.
Representatives of each of the four airlines operating out of Meadows Field said no further reductions to Bakersfield’s flight schedule are planned. But they emphasized that airline executives continue to monitor changes in fuel costs, and may be forced to act.
FLIGHTS BEING ADDED TOO
Additional flights are another option as airlines try to capitalize on profitable services that could help them offset the fuel hikes.
Last week, in fact, two airlines said they were increasing their Bakersfield service. United Airlines disclosed plans to add a third daily trip between Los Angeles and Bakersfield, and Delta Airlines said it would reinstitute a flight to and from Salt Lake City.
“We’re being very disciplined with our capacity and we’re using our assets in services that are most profitable and customers want to fly to,” United spokesman Jeff Kovick said, adding that the airline recently reduced its domestic flight total by 9 percent.
With their own costs on the rise, one option before airlines would appear obvious: Raise fares. But people in the industry say that’s generally unfeasible because of the danger that passengers will go with alternatives such as taking the train or simply forgoing their trips.
Instead, some airlines are hoping they can address the situation by reducing their number of flights without having to stop service out of some cities altogether.
“That’s the first thing that we try to do if at all possible, is to decrease the frequency” of flights out of a city, said Kristy Nicholas, a spokeswoman for ExpressJet, which also operates out of Meadows Field.
ExpressJet’s Bakersfield flights have avoided the cuts that by June 5 will have reduced the airline’s nationwide service from 200 departures a day to 166, Nicholas said. But she said executives will again look at possible cuts in the fall, and Bakersfield will be among the cities where reductions will be weighed.
A spokesman for Delta Airlines insisted that recent decisions regarding whether to continue and even increase service levels are not made lightly, but reflect strategic considerations.
“It’s not a knee-jerk reaction to a situation,” spokesman Anthony Black said. “It’s a lot of long-term planning.”
Even so, with fuel prices fluctuating constantly, business moves must also ensure an airline’s day-to-day survival.
“You can’t predict the future,” U.S. Airlines spokeswoman Valerie Wunder said, “so we’re doing what we think is best now.”
•••
HOW FLIGHTS ARE DOING
Airlines use many calculations to help them determine how their flights are doing financially. Among these is “yield,” which the Air Transport Association defines as the average amount of revenue an airline received per passenger mile, after taxes.
The higher the yield number, the more profitable the service — and the more likely it will continue in a given market. It can be informative to compare an airline’s yield at a specific airport against its systemwide yield.
Airline spokespeople say yield is an important factor for their executives to consider, but that it is one of many, including average passenger count per flight. They also emphasize that a low yield figure can be offset by a large number of passengers going on to other destinations.
Airlines spokespeople generally decline to discuss yield numbers for specific markets such as Bakersfield. The Bakersfield yield data below is from 2007.
Delta Airlines
Overall yield in Bakersfield: 15.3 cents
Bakersfield yield on Salt Lake City hub flights: 48.9 cents
Delta’s systemwide yield for three-month period ended March 31: 14.54 cents
United Airlines
Overall yield in Bakersfield: 18.9 cents
Bakersfield yield on Denver hub flights: 28.7 cents
United’s systemwide yield among regional affiliates such as Meadows Field Airport for three-month period ended March 31: 12.3 cents
U.S. Airways
Overall yield in Bakersfield: 15.5 cents
Bakersfield yield on Phoenix hub flights: 33.6 cents
U.S. Airways’ systemwide yield for three-month period ended March 31: 26.46 cents
(Bakersfield yield figures for ExpressJet and Mexicana Airlines were not available) Source: USA Dataminer, individual airlines’ financial reports