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E-mail StoryKern leads 'mortgage risk' list
New report cites factors like rise in default notices
| Monday, Jan 28 2008 9:15 PM
Last Updated: Monday, Jan 28 2008 9:20 PM
Kern County tops a new list of large U.S. home markets with a high probability that homeowners will miss a mortgage payment.
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Santa Ana-based First American CoreLogic's report ranked Kern ahead of every other large metropolitan area in the country, just above No. 2 Stockton and No. 3 Fresno.
The quarterly ranking, released Monday, measured "mortgage risk" by four weighing factors: changes in home prices, foreclosure rates, mortgage fraud and local unemployment.
County records show that lenders sent 8,651 default notices to Kern property owners in 2007 -- more than twice the rate in 2006, when 3,275 defaults were recorded.
Local real estate professionals reacted differently to the report, with some seeing a silver lining and one calling the list "very accurate."
Eydie Gibson, a real estate agent at Watson Touchstone Real Estate, said the recent increase in foreclosures allows some buyers into the market as lenders price foreclosed homes to sell quickly.
"It's a temporary bump," she said. "It's an opportunity for some, a tragedy for others."
But credit consultant Anselmo Moreno, who works for Innovative Credit Solutions helping homebuyers improve their credit scores so they refinance their mortgage, found it harder to see the ranking's positive side. He said local real estate professionals pushed sales too hard between 2004 and 2006, leading some people to buy when they should not have.
"It was just a matter of time before (mortgage lenders) realized we are at the highest risk for mortgage defaults," Moreno said.
Bakersfield high-end homebuilder Phil Gaskill suggested a local market turnaround may be near, citing what he called a recent increase in tours of new homes.