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Bond failure complicates governor's re-election campaign

By LAURA KURTZMAN, | Thursday, Mar 16 2006 6:15 PM

Last Updated: Thursday, Mar 16 2006 6:15 PM

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's failure to put a multibillion dollar public works bond on the June ballot robs him of a fresh accomplishment just as he is poised to begin asking voters for a new term.

The bond's failure, at least for now, is more than just an ordinary legislative setback. Schwarzenegger has staked his re-election on an ambitious plan to use the bonds to rebuild the state's aging roads, schools and water projects.

The governor still has time to rescue his plan and put some sort of bond on the November ballot. But the difficulty he is having underscores the impression voters already have that Schwarzenegger is ineffective.

He runs the risk that his $222 billion statewide rebuilding plan will become yet another big idea - like "blowing up the boxes" of the state bureaucracy during his first full year in office and last year's special election - that Schwarzenegger announced with great fanfare only to watch it fall apart.

"I think it gets to the point where the question is whether he has any effectiveness as a governor," said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist who is not working for either of the governor's two potential opponents. "This guy is the governor of California and what's he doing?"

Schwarzenegger tried to put the best face on things Thursday with a morning-after news conference in which he thanked legislators for their hard work, although the Senate failed to pass even one of his many bond proposals.

"I don't see the glass half empty; I see the glass half full," Schwarzenegger said, insisting that the negotiations have had a beneficial effect by educating Californians about the need to rebuild. "We are dealing here with a lot of issues that have not been addressed for decades."

The governor also said it did not matter whether the bonds appeared on the June or November ballot.

Schwarzenegger's supporters point out that while the Legislature did not pass a bond, both houses did give overwhelming support to repairing the levees of the Central Valley, which Schwarzenegger has made a priority.

Last month, he issued an emergency declaration to speed repairs. Without them, the levees are in danger of catastrophic flooding.

To a certain extent, the Legislature's failure to pass any sort of bond for June is the result of disharmony among Democratic leaders, who have competing priorities.

While Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, D-Los Angeles, a key ally of the California Teachers Association, promotes bonds for new school construction, Senate President Don Perata, D-Oakland, an ally of the building trades, believes the priority should be transportation.

Sentiment among Republican lawmakers for Schwarzenegger's borrowing plan has ranged from lukewarm to hostile. They have criticized the size, which started at $68 billion but fell to about $50 billion, and demanded environmental and other reforms. The Republican resistance, despite polling that shows the governor's ideas are popular among Republican voters, makes it easy for his opponents to portray him as weak.

"He has done nothing to move the Republicans off where they were in the first place, except in the limited way the Assembly was able to take advantage of last night," said Gale Kaufman, who advises Nunez, referring to bipartisan support for separate levee and school bonds.

Schwarzenegger may yet put some sort of public works bond on the November ballot. But to do that, he must navigate the Democrat-controlled Legislature, just when Democrats will be most focused on trying to oust him from office.

If the governor can overcome the political obstacles, one analyst said he could benefit by having his proposals put to a vote in November. General elections attract young and ethnic voters who are sympathetic to government spending. And polls show most voters support the governor's ideas.

Schwarzenegger could run television commercials supporting the bond, a bipartisan accomplishment, while he promotes himself as a candidate.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the nonpartisan Field Poll, said such a scenario "complicates his Democratic challengers' lives more than it complicates his life."

DiCamillo also said Schwarzenegger's current problems may not be registering with voters, who aren't yet paying attention to the governor's race, much less the details of what happens in Sacramento.

But if a bond package fails to make it onto the November ballot, Schwarzenegger is bound to suffer. His accomplishments to date - rescinding the car tax, reducing the state deficit and presiding over an improving economy - will be distant and diffuse.

To win re-election, he most likely will have to change the subject from his performance in office to the qualifications of his Democratic opponents - Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly - something his allies already are beginning to do.

"His re-election won't be about bonds," said Jim Brulte, the former Republican Senate leader. "His re-election will be Angelides' or Westly's vision of the future versus his vision of the future."