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Ready for an oil-less future?

Author says shortage will undo much of our economy

BY STACEY SHEPARD, Californian staff writer
e-mail: sshepard@bakersfield.com | Wednesday, Nov 14 2007 10:30 PM

Last Updated: Wednesday, Nov 14 2007 10:34 PM

For a town with lots of oil, agriculture, houses and cars, Bakersfield got a bleak message from James Howard Kunstler on Wednesday night.

In a 90-minute slide show presentation at Cal State Bakersfield, the nationally known author and urban planning guru laid out what he calls The Long Emergency -- a future where oil is scarce and the American lifestyle collapses.

"Contrary to a lot of wishful thinking out there, the Earth doesn't have a creamy, nougat center of oil," said Kunstler, 59, whose latest book is also titled "The Long Emergency."

When the petroleum pump runs dry, he says, it will fundamentally shift our way of life.

Commuting to work from sprawling cities and suburbs will become too expensive, along with busing kids to centralized schools. Say goodbye to cheap foreign imports because the goods' movement will grind to a halt. "The blue-light shopping fiesta" will stop and we'll have to start making things we need.

And prepare to return to small-scale farming because agribusiness won't survive the oil drought either, he said.

Kunstler's views ranged from far-fetched to hilarious for some but the underlying theme was that American have to start thinking and planning for a future without oil. And, according to the 59-year-old writer, that doesn't mean pretending that alternative fuels will save us.

"No combination of alternative fuels will allow us to continue running Disney, Wal-Mart and the interstate freeway system," he said.

The idea that technology will create an answer to the pending energy crisis is also ludicrous he said, showing a slide of an airplane that said: "Fill'er up with, uh ... technology!"

The oil issues are especially pressing in California, he said, where development has been entirely based around car dependency.

Development in the state has been 50 years of the song "Fun, fun, fun until Daddy takes the T-bird away," he said.

Kunstler was upfront about the fact that he didn't have many solutions to the problem, saying a quick fix doesn't exist.

"What there is is an intelligent response to what's coming," he said. "We just have to get ready to be busy and make a lot of changes."

But he did offer a glimmer of hope for locals.

Bakersfield's saving grace, he said, is the abundant farmland surrounding it. When large-scale farming is crippled by the lack of petroleum-based pesticides and fertilizers and fuel for farm equipment becomes too expensive, he predicts the surviving communities will be those that can return to traditional small-scale farming.

"Your city has become a maimed and mutilated organism but it does have that," he said.

In terms of future growth here, he suggested the city be built up, not out, and that it fill in the city center by removing the numerous downtown parking areas.

"He's outrageous but he gets your attention," said Bakersfield resident and Cal State professor B.J. Moore after the speech ended. "I think there's probably some truth to his assertions. We have to stop turning our farmland into housing, and do away with building height restrictions and we should reinvigorate our rail system."